43, Summer 2011 - creating a mitigation plan to deal with unexpected risks The author developed a risk-mitigation plan to reestablish order from chaos. Individual ability to learn effectively, adapt rapidly and appropriately, and to solve problems has always been self-evidently valuable to commanders. All progress, therefore, depends on unreasonable people. Paolo Cardini: Forget multitasking, try monotasking, a talk from m - if TED site is blocked, you may be able to watch it on or one of the other sites People arent just cooking anymore - theyre cooking, texting, talking on the phone, watching. She demos the headset, and talks about its far-reaching applications." Rebecca Saxe: How we read each other's minds, a talk from m (but you may need to watch it on if the m version won't run on your computer) "Sensing the motives and feelings. However, todays choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis because they are implicit in all strategic assessments. In Talebs The Black Swan, he argues that because humans rely so much on past experience, they cannot conceive of a situation that has not happened before.
We place creativity at the top because crafting strategies, like war itself, is an art. Visualize plans to see if they achieve goals. The balance between Gladwell and Surowiecki should be lessons that all senior officers learn en route to becoming strategists. Therefore, this work is not only intended to serve as an education in counterfactual reasoning, but also as an exhortation to counterfactual reasoning. Obtain project sponsor approval. In large hierarchical organizations such as the Army, consistency of thought is the norm, and not the exception. Sandia research team studies best way to solve wicked problems ( local copy ), Sandia National Labs, Wicked problems are complex problems that change when you apply a solution. And so it is important to understand the limits of how we process information and common types of errors that can occur. Godin targets our "lizard brain" as the source of these primal doubts, and implores us to "thrash at the beginning" of projects so that we can ship on time and on budget." he states that everyone is creative; the important thing is to "ship" (your. No leader wants to appear as vacillating or be accused of hemming and hawing on key issues.
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